Report First 3 months of 2021 brought billion-dollar disaster, warm start to spring for U.S.

Since January, conditions across the U.S. have been running warmer and wetter than normal. The nation also recorded its first billion-dollar weather and climate disaster of 2021 — the deadly deep freeze that enveloped much of the central U.S. in February — and two tornado outbreaks in late March.
The month of March turned out a bit warmer and drier than average, according to NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information.
Here are more highlights from NOAA’s latest monthly U.S. climate report:
Climate by the numbers
Year to date | Billion-Dollar Disasters
The average U.S. temperature for the year to date (January through March) was 36.9 degrees F (1.8 degrees above average), which ranked in the warmest third of the record.
The contiguous U.S. also kicked off the year a little on the wet side, with a year-to-date average rainfall of 6.55 inches — 0.41 of an inch above average.
Most notable, the U.S. saw its first billion-dollar disaster of 2021 that had a devastating death toll: At least 125 people died as a direct or indirect result of a mid-February blanket of arctic weather that dropped temperatures to historic lows across the central United States. Texas experienced the majority of the property and infrastructure losses that were incurred by more than a dozen states. The preliminary total damage estimate for this extreme event — in excess of $10 billion — makes it the most costly winter weather disaster on record for the U.S., surpassing the so-called “Storm of the Century” that struck the Gulf Coast all the way up to Maine in 1993.
March 2021
The average monthly temperature across the contiguous U.S. was 45.5 degrees F (4.0 degrees above the 20th-century average) and ranked in the warmest third of the climate record.
Above-average temperatures were observed across much of the country, from the Northwest to the Northeast, as well as from the Great Lakes to the Gulf of Mexico. North Dakota, for example, had its fourth-warmest March on record.
The average precipitation in the contiguous U.S. last month was 2.45 inches (0.06 of an inch below average), ranking in the middle third of the climate record.
Below-average precipitation fell across the Northwest, northern Plains, and Northeast, as well as portions of the Southeast, Deep South and West. Both Montana and North Dakota saw their second-driest March in 127 years.
More notable climate events in March
Deadly tornado outbreaks: In March, two rounds of deadly severe weather and tornadoes raked the U.S. South. More than 100 tornadoes were reported during the two outbreaks (March 17-18 and March 25-27). One particularly violent EF3-tornado struck Calhoun County, Alabama, on March 25 and caused five deaths.
A chilly, wintry month for Alaska: The state shivered through its coldest March in four years. The average March temperature for Alaska was 7.2 degrees F, 3.6 degrees below the long-term average. The capital city of Juneau reported its snowiest March since 2007.
Drought improved slightly: By the end of March, the U.S. Drought Monitoroffsite link reported that nearly 44% of the contiguous U.S. was in drought, down from 46.6% at the beginning of the month. Drought improved across parts of the central Rockies, central Plains, Puerto Rico and Hawaii.

How science can help build a more resilient Europe

Enhanced data collection, more knowledge sharing and a long-term approach to risk will be key in strengthening Europe’s resilience against future disasters, according to a new book published today by the JRC.
Drawing lessons from the coronavirus pandemic and other crises, ‘Science for Disaster Risk Management 2020: acting today, protecting tomorrow’ explores how to protect lives, livelihoods, the environment and our rich cultural heritage from future disasters.
With input from over 300 experts, the book highlights the important role of science in preparing Europe to face the challenges that lie over the horizon.
Commissioner for Crisis Management, Janez Lenarčič, said: “As disasters defy borders the EU supports national action and promotes cross-border cooperation on disaster risk management – with the EU Civil Protection Mechanism being at the heart of this work. Using all data, science and lessons learnt available is vital to strengthen the collective safety and resilience against disasters in the EU and beyond”.
Commissioner for Innovation, Research, Culture, Education and Youth, Mariya Gabriel said: “The Joint Research Centre has long held key expertise in disaster risk management, spawning valuable tools like early warning systems and satellite mapping services, disaster risk studies and global risk models. The new book ‘Science for Disaster Risk Management 2020: acting today, protecting tomorrow’, is the latest of these tools: it shows how vital science is in helping us prepare for disasters, and how we can all work together to learn the lessons of the past and prepare better for the future.”
The aftermath of disasters can be learning opportunities, both in recovering quickly and dealing with the underlying drivers of disaster risk to avoid or mitigate similar events. This new book provides several examples and recommendations on how to grasp these opportunities to build a more resilient future.
Data is key to understanding the impact of disasters, and better managing them in the future
Events like the Fukushima accident in 2011 or the coronavirus pandemic show that, however improbable they may seem, disasters do occur and they can have a huge impact.
On a practical level, past disasters can serve to highlight weaknesses and trigger changes in the policy framework. For example, the forest fires of 2017 in Portugal caused a reassessment of fire management policies and led to new legislation to protect people and territory from forest fires.
To make the most of these opportunities, scientists need quality, comprehensive data and information gathered after a disaster to develop the right methodologies and tools. The book authors recommend developing a mechanism so that disaster loss data can be collected and used in this way.
A major challenge to collating and using data is that much of the damages and loss to cultural and environmental ecosystems caused by disasters can remain hidden when the value of these assets are not easy to define in economic terms.
It is hard to put a price on cultural artefacts or quantify what is lost when certain oral traditions and customs are no longer performed.
As a first step, the authors recommend compiling an inventory of the current state of cultural heritage assets in Europe, which can contribute to preserving that heritage in the face of disasters.
Taking a long-term view on disaster risk
The book also calls for a shift from a short-term, reactionary approach to disaster risk management, towards a long-term view that tackles the underlying drivers of risk - such as inequality, urbanisation, or climate change.
For example, the authors show how urban planning can play a key role in avoiding building in risk-prone areas like flood plains. Climate change also poses a challenge that requires a long-term response: sectors like European agriculture will need to deal with more frequent and extreme weather events in the coming years.
The book recommends actions such as supporting research groups from across different scientific disciplines to work together to find nature-based innovative solutions to societal challenges.
Sharing knowledge and working together to become more resilient
In today’s complex world and the many links between assets, sectors and governance levels, disasters often have an impact across countries and sections of society. It is therefore necessary that different stakeholders and groups share their data and knowledge to co-create effective strategies to reduce disaster risk.
One positive example of this came following the explosion of a fertiliser plant near Toulouse in 2001. It triggered a set of actions to engage local stakeholders in the co-design of strategies and measures to deal with technological risk.
By establishing local committees for information and consultation, people can now participate in the decision-making process and implementation of measures to prevent these risks, while also having an influence on land-use planning.
The book recommends education and training to raise awareness and build the capacity of individuals and communities to contribute to these efforts.

New EU tool to support the assessment of wildfire risks and the mitigation of effects in Latin America and Caribbean region

The Joint Research Centre has developed country profiles under the Global Wildfire Information System (GWIS) helping to support wildfire management and disaster risk reduction globally but in particular, in the Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) region.
These profiles provide information on the geographic distribution of wildfires, burnt areas and emissions, and assess wildfire regimes and impacts at country and sub-country level for all continents worldwide.
Commissioner for Innovation, Research, Culture, Education and Youth, Mariya Gabriel, said: "Wildfires can have catastrophic consequences on the environment and on people. The country profiles designed by the Joint Research Centre will contribute to the risk assessment and mitigation of this danger, proving how science can help improve and protect lives and our planet."
Mette Wilkie, Director of the Forestry Division, FAO said:
"The opportunity for countries around the world to assess their national fire situation through the Wildfire Country Profiles of GWIS is fundamental to understanding fire risk and underpinning plans to mitigate the effects of wildfires. These efforts are critical to the achievement of Sustainable Development Goals related to climate change mitigation, biodiversity conservation and sustainable livelihoods. FAO looks forward to continuing collaboration with the EC through JRC and GWIS, particularly in Latin America and the Caribbean."
Leo Heileman, UN Environment Programme's Regional Director for Latin America and the Caribbean said:
"UNEP is delighted to support, along with FAO, a new information system that will improve wildfire management and strengthen disaster risk reduction in Latin America and the Caribbean, including the Amazon region. This kind of initiatives are part of an upgraded framework of cooperation agreed in February 2021 between the European Commission and UNEP aimed to step up efforts to tackle the climate, biodiversity and pollution crises, thus supporting countries build a healthier and more inclusive and resilient future for all."
Steven Ramage, Head of External Relations at the GEO Secretariat said:
"The Group on Earth Observations (GEO) welcomes the development of the GWIS country profiles by the European Commission’s Joint Research Center (JRC). This application is a unique resource to enhance wildfire prevention, preparedness and effectiveness in wildfire management. It provides access to critical wildfire information for governments and practitioners alike to prepare and respond to natural hazards.
GWIS is one of the most successful collaborative initiatives within the GEO Work Programme, providing Earth observations data and tools to enable informed national responses in the context of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and the Paris Agreement on climate change."
This information is essential to allow a global assessment of wildfire risk and to mitigate the effects of wildfires on land degradation, deforestation, or biomass burning emissions.
They contribute to shaping appropriate policies, reducing community exposure, mitigating damage and increasing resilience to wildfire events. These GWIS services also contribute to the implementation of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), reducing the impact of climate change and disaster risk.
These country profiles are part of the new European Commission initiative to support wildfire management and disaster risk reduction globally and in particular in Latin America and the Caribbean.
This JRC action will fit into a comprehensive approach by the EU to support conservation and sustainable development of the Amazon forests.
There are at present more than 50 EU programmes on this regional priority, and the new budget for global Europe will also cover a specific Amazon strategy, coordinated with EU Member States.
This will be implemented in collaboration with the EU Delegations in the LAC region, supporting forthcoming EU programs in the region under the EU Green Deal strategy.
Through a Team Europe Initiative for the Amazon basin, coordinated actions in the field of forest conservation, sustainable agriculture, and environmental governance, will strengthen the impact and use of the GWIS services.

IACIPP and Capitol Sign Agreement to Advance Worldwide Critical Infrastructure Awareness and Knowledge

Capitol Technology University and the International Association of Critical Infrastructure Protection Professionals (IACIPP) signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) to develop a partnership that will extend efforts to improve the training and education of Critical Infrastructure Students and professionals. Both parties recognize a high demand for worldwide cooperation to increase the effectiveness of research, education, and activities in the critical infrastructure field of study. This MOU will facilitate the development of joint seminars, conferences, and training courses.
“As an Association we aim to deliver discussion and innovation— on many of the serious infrastructure, protection, management, and security challenges—facing both industry and governments. The ever changing and evolving nature of threats, whether natural through climate change or man-made through terrorism activities, either physical or cyber, means there is a continual need to review and update policies, practices, training, and technologies to meet these growing and changing demands,” said John Donlon QPM, Chairman IACIPP. “This partnership with Capitol Technology University enables both parties to develop and enhance objectives through education and training.”
A nation’s critical infrastructure provides the essential services that underpin a society. Proactive and coordinated efforts are necessary to strengthen and maintain secure, functioning, and resilient critical infrastructure— including assets, networks, and systems—that are vital to public confidence and a nation’s safety, prosperity, and well-being.
Critical infrastructure must be secure and able to withstand and rapidly recover from all hazards. Achieving this will require integration with the national preparedness system across prevention, protection, mitigation, response, and recovery.
The International Association of Critical Infrastructure Protection Professionals (IACIPP) is an international association of practitioners and professionals involved in the security, resilience and safety of critical infrastructure, both physical and information infrastructure.
The IACIPP is open to critical infrastructure operators and government agencies, including site managers, security officers, government agency officials, policy makers, research & academia. The Association also aims to share ideas, information, experiences, technology and best practices to enhance these objectives.
Capitol Technology University, located in Laurel, Maryland, is an independent institution that has focused on STEM education since 1927. Capitol Tech, the national winner of the 2020 SC Media Award for Best Cybersecurity Higher Education Program, offers hands-on courses taught by industry experts that lead to undergraduate and graduate degrees in emerging fields such as Mechatronics Engineering and Artificial Intelligence.

UNISDR Report: Words into Action guideline: Man-made/technological hazards

The UNISDR has issues a report that takes a practical approach in addressing man-made and technological hazards, and builds upon previous analyses and recommendations relating to such hazards in the context of DRR.
The number and magnitude of man-made disasters worldwide have risen since the 1970s and continue to grow in both frequency and impact on human wellbeing and economies, particularly in low and middle-income countries.
Several major technological accidents and the increased number of new hazardous substances and materials have highlighted the need to tackle these hazards within the overall frame of inclusive disaster risk management. Paragraph 15 of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 leaves no doubt about the need to address hazards comprehensively as it applies to the risk of small-scale and large-scale, frequent and infrequent, sudden and slow-onset disasters, caused by both natural and man-made hazards as well as related environmental, technological and biological hazards and risks. It aims to guide the management of disaster risk at all levels as well as within and across all sectors.
The United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR) is the focal point of the United Nations system for disaster risk reduction and the custodian of the Sendai Framework, supporting countries and societies in its implementation, monitoring and review of progress.
In accordance with the Sendai Framework, this guide seeks to address man-made hazards by strengthening national and local disaster management plans to include these hazards and by raising awareness of their risks and impacts. Furthermore, it will be a valuable tool to support training and capacity building.
This guide provides a set of evidence-based, practical activities for implementation for chemical, industrial and transport accidents, and nuclear and radiological hazards under the Sendai Framework’s four priorities for action. The guide highlights the existing diversity of thematic frameworks, institutional and legal mechanisms at global and regional levels that are related to and used for addressing man-made hazards. It also draws attention to existing collaborations within the disaster risk reduction community and key partners.
The Guide builds on the outcomes of the Open-ended Intergovernmental Expert Working Group on Indicators and Terminology for the Sendai Framework, and the work on hazard classification and terminology related to man-made hazards.
Full guide is available here >>

Decoding public finance for disaster risk reduction and climate investments

The need to increase investments in disaster risk reduction (DRR) and climate change adaptation (CCA) is a well-accepted priority to minimize losses from disaster and climate change. However, there are challenges in articulating how much countries ought to spend, what areas they should prioritize, and which type of measure are more effective in achieving risk and losses reduction.  The absence of baseline information on expenditure trends hampers the analysis of most cost-efficient ways to reduce risk.
One way to gain insights into the current levels of investments is by conducting a review of public expenditure. The goal of such a review and budget tracking is to advise decision-makers on where gaps exist to realign budgets with priorities.
To aid this, some tools and methodologies have been developed to help governments track expenditures. Among these are ‘policy markers’ to conduct risk-sensitive budget reviews, climate and disaster risk management Public Expenditure and Institutional Reviews (PEIR), or longer-term initiatives on climate budget tagging.  Other methods of financial tracking include using national accounting systems and environmental expenditure reviews.
While there have been a few national exercises that have applied these tools and some success stories on institutionalizing budget tagging within performance budgeting and public financial management reforms, most countries in Asia-Pacific and sub-Saharan Africa do not track disaster-related investments and expenditures.
To increase uptake among countries, UNDRR’s Regional Offices for Asia-Pacific and Africa collaborated with UNDP to organize a two-day consultation on 3-4 February that brought together 69 representatives of organizations who have experience in conducting such reviews to exchange lessons and discuss how the methodology could be improved to better link DRR and CCA public expenditures.
“Disaster risk management public expenditure and institutional reviews have emerged as a critical tool for advocating for greater investment in disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation, especially from the context of results-based decision making,” said Mr. Ronald Jackson, Head of UNDP’s Disaster Risk Reduction and Recovery team.
Where public expenditure reviews have been conducted, they have helped shed a light on current levels of investment, such as a recent review conducted by the UNDRR Regional Office for Africa of 16 African countries found that investments in DRR projects represent only 4% of national budgets on average.
“With the social-economic impacts of the COVID-19 crisis and the ongoing climate emergency, it is becoming increasingly evident that governments need to increase budgetary allocations for disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation,” commented Mr. Amjad Abbashar, Chief of the UNDRR Regional Office for Africa.
The purpose of budget tracking is not only to ensure proper allocation to line ministries at the central level but also to ensure that local governments receive support that is proportional to the disaster risks and impacts they are facing and their responsibilities to address them.
“In Malawi, we found that only 1% of environmental expenditure was spent at the district level. Yet it is at the district level that many of the environmental and climate resilience challenges exist and need to be addressed,” said Mr. David Smith of the joint UNDP-UNEP Poverty and Environment Initiative for Africa.
Another example is Nepal, which has transitioned to a federal system and devolved responsibilities to the local level, but is allocating only 15% of national appropriations to municipal governments, according to an example highlighted by Ms. Charlotte Benson, Principal Disaster Risk Management Specialist with the Asian Development Bank.
In addition to vertical and horizontal distributions of funds, another aspect of expenditure tracking that countries should consider are “negative expenditures”, which are expenses from risk-blind initiatives that negatively impact the achievement of climate and disaster resilience goals. This was a point echoed by both Mr. Asad Maken, UNDP’s Regional Advisor Governance of Climate Change Finance for the Asia Pacific Region, and Mr. Nohman Ishtiaq, UNDP Advisor to Pakistan’s Ministry of Finance.
Regardless of what methodology is adopted in reviewing, tagging and tracking expenditures, there was a consensus on the need to build the capacity of climate and disaster risk management agencies, in addition to the ministries of finance, to ensure that such coding expenditure and tracking become embedded in routine government processes.
This capacity building is particularly important considering that many of the country examples that were shared - Fiji, Mauritius, Mozambique and Pakistan - highlighted the need to contextualize tracking processes to local circumstances.
Moreover, conducting a budget tagging exercise or a public expenditure review can help developing countries access new streams of financing to implement DRR and CCA plans:
“We work very closely with National Designated Authorities that are ambitious in preparing Green Climate Fund proposals only to find that their lack of knowledge of ongoing climate and disaster-related expenditure is a huge hurdle for them to fill out the proposal,” noted Ms. Shivaranjani Venkatramani, a consultant with Oxford Policy Management, who has supported NDAs in South and Southeast Asia.
More importantly, simply engaging ministries of finance and planning in a budget tracking or public expenditure review can help bring DRR and CCA efforts into “the heart of economic decision making” and “shift climate and disaster resilience away from being an external environmental agenda to a domestic development priority,” according to Mr. Paul Steele Chief Economist at the International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED).
Beyond the benefits of helping governments uncover funding gaps, monitor the effectiveness of spending, facilitate decision making, improve transparency and raise awareness among critical partners, budget tagging and expenditure reviews can be part of a larger approach towards strengthening risk financing and risk-informing development process as a whole.
“Governments should move from a contingent liability approach of public financing to a social risk management approach to reduce unplanned expenditures. It is equally important that we complement public finance tagging and tracking with the required level of political advocacy, such as with the ongoing work on the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures,” noted Mr. Animesh Kumar, Officer-in-Charge of UNDRR’s Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific.
Developing a good understanding of the budgetary landscape can also help countries develop integrated national financing frameworks (INFF), which are a tool to finance national priorities, including the implementation of national DRR strategies.
At the global level, it was noted that much of what was discussed at the consultation can feed into ongoing global intergovernmental processes related to the 2030 Agenda.
“The timeliness of this workshop is essential in that there are very important global initiatives that are unfolding, and the knowledge unearthed in this conversation can benefit the considerations and deliberations for the implementation of these initiatives,” said Mr. Marco Toscano-Rivalta, Head of UNDRR’s Liaison Office in New York and Chief (designate) of UNDRR’s Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific.
Examples of such initiatives include the Interagency Task Force on Financing for Development and High-Level Meeting on ‘Financing for Development in the Era of COVID-19 and Beyond.’ Mr. Toscano-Rivalta also highlighted the potential role of national supreme auditors in budgetary and expenditure tracking to generate the desired level of accountability and transparency.
As a follow-up to the consultation, the group will consider documenting the methodologies and case studies in the form of a publication and potentially consider an analysis of how DRR and CCA could be imbedded in COVID-19 economic recovery efforts.
[Source: UNDRR]

WMO boosts regional cooperation in Asia-Pacific

The Typhoon Committee, which symbolizes the successful cooperation between WMO and the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, holds its 53rd annual session, woth participants from the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) and national Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) agencies who will exchange information on achievements of the past session, review activities of the Members, as well as operational and research collaborations, with the clear focus on reducing the number of lives lost and damage to property caused by tropical cyclones and typhoons.
On top of the disruption and catastrophic impacts caused by COVID-19, the Asia-Pacific region was hit by successive hazards in 2020, including tropical cyclones, floods, droughts, sand and dust storms and heatwaves. 23 named tropical cyclones of tropical storm intensity or above formed over the western North Pacific and the South China Sea.
The strongest tropical cyclone of the season was Super Typhoon Goni (2019). It made landfall over northern Philippines on 1 November and caused catastrophic damage. A minimum pressure of 912.1 hPa was reported in Virac and a maximum gust of 198 km/h was reported in Legaspi City. 25 people died and 399 injured, and the social and economic loss was estimated to be over 17 billion Philippines Peso, according to a report from the Philippines national meteorological and hydrological service PAGASA.
Two major tropical cyclones hit the Korean Peninsula within a few days in early September, with Typhoon Maysak making landfall near Busan on 3 September, followed by Haishen on 7 September. Maysak brought 1037 mm of rainfall over two days to a site on Jeju Island, and wind gusts on the island up to 165.6 km/h, with high waves of more than 8 m. The damage costs of Mayask and Haishen reaches over 200 million USD, with a possible recovery cost of 548 million USD, according to a report submitted to the Typhoon Committee by the Korea Meteorological Administration. Both tropical cyclones led to significant flooding on the Korean Peninsula and in western Japan, and 41 lives were lost when a ship sank off western Japan during the passage of Maysak.
Sustainable Development
Although countries across the region have committed to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030 — to ensure that ‘no one is left behind’ – this will remain a challenge if their populations remain susceptible to disasters that threaten to reverse hard-won progress towards the SDGs.
Building on the success of the Typhoon Committee, WMO continues to work with countries in the region, often in partnership with other United Nations entities, to build greater resilience to natural disasters that wreak a heavy economic and human toll.
In particular, WMO and UNESCAP in 2020 focused on implementing collaborative activities under their Memorandum of Understanding (MoU). These activities highlight the synergistic benefits that are derived from both organisations’ work on building resilience to climate and disaster risks and the promotion of impact-based early warning services and systems.
This MoU was renewed by Ms Armida Salsiah-Alisjahbana, Under-Secretary-General of the United Nations and Executive Secretary of UNESCAP and Prof. Petteri Taalas, Secretary-General of WMO on 21 September 2019 during the UN Climate Summit held in New York, based on their aligned values and objectives and desire to work together in areas of mutual interest.
A Joint Workshop on Strengthening Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems and Early Actions in Southeast Asia was organized by WMO and hosted by UNESCAP in Bangkok, Thailand from 18 to 20 February 2020. Participants reached a consensus on developing a coordinated Southeast Asia-wide framework for strengthening the hydro-meteorological disaster risk management and capacity development of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services.
The Regional Climate Outlook Fora (RCOFs) have been guided and supported by WMO and its partners to promote collaboration, knowledge and information sharing on seasonal climate prediction and its likely implications for the most impacted socio-economic sectors since the late 1990s. The potential to add further value to the outputs of RCOFs through impact-based products was introduced by UNESCAP during the South Asian Seasonal Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF), the Forum on Regional Climate Monitoring, Assessment and Prediction for Asia (FOCRAII) and the East Asia winter Climate Outlook Forum (EASCOF).
Looking ahead, with its official membership in the United Nations’ Regional Collaborative Platform in Asia and the South-West Pacific, WMO will build on the achievements of 2020 and further expand regional cooperation in the broader context of sustainable development. In 2021, the partnership will continue its critically important mission to build resilience to climate and disaster risk; and promote the social and economic benefits of impact-based early warning services in the Asia Pacific region. WMO’s longstanding and manifold regional initiatives and capacity development programmes in Asia-Pacific will now be further enhanced.

Fujitsu Leverages World's Fastest Supercomputer and AI to Predict Tsunami Flooding

A new AI model that harnesses the power of the world's fastest supercomputer, Fugaku, can rapidly predict tsunami flooding in coastal areas before the tsunami reaches land.
The development of the new technology was announced as part of a joint project between the International Research Institute of Disaster Science (IREDeS) at Tohoku University, the Earthquake Research Institute at the University of Tokyo, and Fujitsu Laboratories.
The 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and subsequent tsunami highlighted the shortcomings in disaster mitigation and the need to utilize information for efficient and safe evacuations.
While tsunami observation networks in Japanese coastal waters have been strengthened since then, using the data produced from those networks to predict a tsunami's path once it hits land has gained greater urgency. This is especially true since a major earthquake is likely to hit Japan's densely populated east coast sometime in the near future.
Tsunami prediction technologies will allow authorities to obtain accurate information quickly and aid them in effectively directing evacuation orders.
Fujitsu, Tohoku University, and The University of Tokyo leveraged the power of Fugaku to generate training data for 20,000 possible tsunami scenarios based on high-resolution simulations. These scenarios were used to streamline an AI model that uses offshore waveform data generated by the tsunami to predict flooding before landfall at high spatial resolution.
Conventional prediction technologies require the use of supercomputers and make rapid prediction systems difficult to implement. The current AI model, however, can be run in seconds on ordinary PCs.
When the model was applied to a simulation of tsunami flooding in Tokyo Bay following a large earthquake, it achieved highly accurate predictions with a regular PC within seconds. The results matched tsunami flooding of the tsunami source models released by the Cabinet Office of Japan.
The research team will continue to make use of Fugaku's high-speed performance in the future by training the system with additional tsunami scenarios. Doing so will help realize AI that can predict tsunami flooding over even wider areas.

Compromise of U.S. Water Treatment Facility

On February 5, 2021, unidentified cyber actors obtained unauthorized access to the supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) system at a U.S. drinking water treatment facility. The unidentified actors used the SCADA system’s software to increase the amount of sodium hydroxide, also known as lye, a caustic chemical, as part of the water treatment process. Water treatment plant personnel immediately noticed the change in dosing amounts and corrected the issue before the SCADA system’s software detected the manipulation and alarmed due to the unauthorized change. As a result, the water treatment process remained unaffected and continued to operate as normal. The cyber actors likely accessed the system by exploiting cybersecurity weaknesses, including poor password security, and an outdated operating system. Early information indicates it is possible that a desktop sharing software, such as TeamViewer, may have been used to gain unauthorized access to the system, although this cannot be confirmed at present date. Onsite response to the incident included Pinellas County Sheriff Office (PCSO), U.S. Secret Service (USSS), and the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI).
The FBI, the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and the Multi-State Information Sharing and Analysis Center (MS-ISAC) have observed cyber criminals targeting and exploiting desktop sharing software and computer networks running operating systems with end of life status to gain unauthorized access to systems. Desktop sharing software, which has multiple legitimate uses—such as enabling telework, remote technical support, and file transfers—can also be exploited through malicious actors’ use of social engineering tactics and other illicit measures. Windows 7 will become more susceptible to exploitation due to lack of security updates and the discovery of new vulnerabilities. Microsoft and other industry professionals strongly recommend upgrading computer systems to an actively supported operating system. Continuing to use any operating system within an enterprise beyond the end of life status may provide cyber criminals access into computer systems.
Click here for a PDF version of this report.
Technical Details
Desktop Sharing Software
The FBI, CISA, EPA, and MS-ISAC have observed corrupt insiders and outside cyber actors using desktop sharing software to victimize targets in a range of organizations, including those in the critical infrastructure sectors. In addition to adjusting system operations, cyber actors also use the following techniques:
- Use access granted by desktop sharing software to perform fraudulent wire transfers.
- Inject malicious code that allows the cyber actors to
 - Hide desktop sharing software windows,
 - Protect malicious files from being detected, and
 - Control desktop sharing software startup parameters to obfuscate their activity.
- Move laterally across a network to increase the scope of activity.
TeamViewer, a desktop sharing software, is a legitimate popular tool that has been exploited by cyber actors engaged in targeted social engineering attacks, as well as large scale, indiscriminate phishing campaigns. Desktop sharing software can also be used by employees with vindictive and/or larcenous motivations against employers.
Beyond its legitimate uses, when proper security measures aren’t followed, remote access tools may be used to exercise remote control over computer systems and drop files onto victim computers, making it functionally similar to Remote Access Trojans (RATs). TeamViewer’s legitimate use, however, makes anomalous activity less suspicious to end users and system administrators compared to RATs.
Windows 7 End of Life
On January 14, 2020, Microsoft ended support for the Windows 7 operating system, which includes security updates and technical support unless certain customers purchased an Extended Security Update (ESU) plan. The ESU plan is paid per-device and available for Windows 7 Professional and Enterprise versions, with an increasing price the longer a customer continues use. Microsoft will only offer the ESU plan until January 2023. Continued use of Windows 7 increases the risk of cyber actor exploitation of a computer system.
Cyber actors continue to find entry points into legacy Windows operating systems and leverage Remote Desktop Protocol (RDP) exploits. Microsoft released an emergency patch for its older operating systems, including Windows 7, after an information security researcher discovered an RDP vulnerability in May 2019. Since the end of July 2019, malicious RDP activity has increased with the development of a working commercial exploit for the vulnerability. Cyber actors often use misconfigured or improperly secured RDP access controls to conduct cyberattacks. The xDedic Marketplace, taken down by law enforcement in 2019, flourished by compromising RDP vulnerabilities around the world.
Mitigations
General Recommendations
The following cyber hygiene measures may help protect against the aforementioned scheme:
- Update to the latest version of the operating system (e.g., Windows 10).
- Use multiple-factor authentication.
- Use strong passwords to protect Remote Desktop Protocol (RDP) credentials.
- Ensure anti-virus, spam filters, and firewalls are up to date, properly configured, and secure.
- Audit network configurations and isolate computer systems that cannot be updated.
- Audit your network for systems using RDP, closing unused RDP ports, applying multiple-factor authentication wherever possible, and logging RDP login attempts.
- Audit logs for all remote connection protocols.
- Train users to identify and report attempts at social engineering.
- Identify and suspend access of users exhibiting unusual activity.
Water and Wastewater Systems Security Recommendations
The following physical security measures serve as additional protective measures:
- Install independent cyber-physical safety systems. These are systems that physically prevent dangerous conditions from occurring if the control system is compromised by a threat actor.
- Examples of cyber-physical safety system controls include:
 - Size of the chemical pump
 - Size of the chemical reservoir
 - Gearing on valves
 - Pressure switches, etc.
The benefit of these types of controls in the water sector is that smaller systems, with limited cybersecurity capability, can assess their system from a worst-case scenario. The operators can take physical steps to limit the damage. If, for example, cyber actors gain control of a sodium hydroxide pump, they will be unable to raise the pH to dangerous levels.
Remote Control Software Recommendations
For a more secured implementation of TeamViewer software:
- Do not use unattended access features, such as “Start TeamViewer with Windows” and “Grant easy access.”
- Configure TeamViewer service to “manual start,” so that the application and associated background services are stopped when not in use.
- Set random passwords to generate 10-character alphanumeric passwords.
- If using personal passwords, utilize complex rotating passwords of varying lengths. Note: TeamViewer allows users to change connection passwords for each new session. If an end user chooses this option, never save connection passwords as an option as they can be leveraged for persistence.
- When configuring access control for a host, utilize custom settings to tier the access a remote party may attempt to acquire.
- Require remote party to receive confirmation from the host to gain any access other than “view only.” Doing so will ensure that, if an unauthorized party is able to connect via TeamViewer, they will only see a locked screen and will not have keyboard control.
- Utilize the ‘Block and Allow’ list which enables a user to control which other organizational users of TeamViewer may request access to the system. This list can also be used to block users suspected of unauthorized access.

Asia-Pacific resolves to move from crisis to resilience

In 2019, the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction’s (UNDRR) Global Assessment Report called on countries to abandon “hazard-by-hazard” risk management, in favour of a holistic approach that examines risk in the context of its impact in systems, including cascading impacts.
A year later, the COVID-19 pandemic presented the world with an unfortunate case study of how systemic risk, if left untreated, can snowball into a disaster and a global crisis.
However, the pandemic was not the only disaster of the year, as 2020 saw countries in Asia-Pacific deal with a perfect storm of dual and multiple disasters, including droughts, floods and typhoons.
For countries in the region to guard against future disasters and mitigate the compounded impact of disasters, a fundamental shift in risk governance at national and local levels is required.
The post-COVID recovery process is one avenue to embed this new approach in socio-economic development processes, to avoid the creation of new risks while risk-proofing development gains.
However, some preconditions need to be met to facilitate this transformation, including committed leadership, investments, engagement of all sectors and stakeholders, and an embrace of science-based multi-hazard risk reduction. All of these elements are in line with the commitments that countries made in the adoption of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030.
The 2021 Asia-Pacific Ministerial Conference for Disaster Risk Reduction (APMCDRR), as the first major UNDRR regional platform since the onset of COVID-19, offers countries and stakeholders an opportunity to determine how these conditions can be met to achieve a transformation in risk governance.
With that goal, UNDRR and Australian Government, as the convener and host of the APMCDRR respectively, completed this week a major step in the roadmap to the ministerial conference, the organizing of the Asia-Pacific Partnership for Disaster Risk Reduction (APP-DRR) Forum.
The APP-DRR was organized on 1-2 December as a virtual meeting with 175 participants from 30 Asia-Pacific governments, over 10 intergovernmental organisations, several UN and international organizations, and stakeholder groups.
The Forum was kicked off with a statement by Ms. Mami Mizutori, Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General for Disaster Risk Reduction, who exhorted the participants to “think big and out of the box”. Opening remarks were made by the Australian Government:
"This forum is an important opportunity to take stock of how we're progressing against our Sendai commitments and to work together to accelerate this process," said Ms. Rebecca Bryant, Assistant Secretary at the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, adding:
"Australia is firmly committed to working with countries to further enhance our region's resilience to disasters and to learn from each other's experience."
Of importance to the APMCDRR is building the disaster resilience of small island developing states in the Pacific. These countries are often the most vulnerable countries to extreme weather events, and still have to mobilize resources to counter a global pandemic.
Speaking on both aspects, the Honorable Dr. Ifereimi Waqainabete, Minister of Health and Medical Services in Fiji, said:
“Our coordinates cannot change... we need to understand as a nation that we are prone to disasters. We are prone to cyclones, droughts and other extreme weather events, almost every year,” emphasizing that “as leaders in our own right, we must continue to make better decisions in building resilience to ensure that the devastating impacts of disasters are mitigated and reduced.”
To make the right decisions, countries need to strengthen their data collection systems and understanding of risk, which in turn contributes to the development of sound national and local disaster risk reduction strategies.
On that front, UNDRR noted that the region was making progress in reporting on several Sendai Framework indicators, as 67% of countries in Asia-Pacific have reported some data as of October 2020.
However, challenges remain around the collection of data that is disaggregated by sex, age and disability, which hinders the effectiveness of planning to ensure no one is left behind.
Moreover, countries continue to face challenges in adopting integrated approaches that combine climate change adaptation with disaster risk reduction and expanding their risk governance mechanisms to other sectors.
As the availability of funding is often a hindrance to the implementation of risk reduction strategies, UNDRR presented recommendations on how countries could finance risk prevention.
Green investment offers a particularly effective way to fund climate change adaptation and risk reduction measures, as is highlighted in a report that was launched by UNDRR at the APP-DRR, titled ‘Ecosystem-Based Disaster Risk Reduction: Implementing Nature-based Solutions for Resilience.’
However, as a result of the downturn in economic activity caused by the COVID-19 crisis, it might be necessary for governments to increase their support for green investments as part of their recovery efforts.
“Financially constrained firms have weaker environmental performance and COVID-19 could be detrimental to environmental investments. Going forward, there will be a need for some forms of public support to encourage green recovery,” said Dr. Hiroko Oura from the International Monetary Fund.
The APP-DRR was also an opportunity for countries and stakeholder groups to voice their priorities and concerns. These reflections were posted on the event page and will help inform planning for APMCDRR.
1 3 4 5 6 7